Executive Summary
- In March, we continued to make tactical adjustments to reduce pro-cyclical exposure. We’ve returned our overall stock/bond allocation back to strategic weights and removed our domestic equity bias.
- The Trump administration has taken an aggressive policy approach that they believe may involve near-term economic pain. We’re taking these risks seriously and have adjusted our positioning accordingly over the last two months.
- While we’ve reduced most of our pro-cyclical exposure, we are not adopting a defensive stance. U.S. businesses and consumers remain financially strong, with low debt burdens. Although our domestic equity return expectations have declined, we do not foresee a bear market.
Fixed Income
Weight: Neutral
We’ve returned to strategic weights between stocks and fixed income, as bond yields near 10-year highs offer compelling income opportunities and competitive return prospects versus equities.
U.S. Taxable Investment Grade
Weight: Slight Overweight
We tactically added to investment-grade bonds, shifting to a slight overweight. They offer appealing risk-adjusted return potential given attractive yields and lower economic sensitivity.
Duration
Weight: Neutral
We’ve shifted to neutral duration as we believe interest rate risks have become more balanced. The prospect of slowing economic growth could put downside pressure on yields, while sticky inflation and potentially disruptive debt and budget negotiations could put upside pressure on yields.
U.S. Taxable Non-Investment Grade
Weight: Slight Underweight
We slightly reduced high-yield bond exposure to trim pro-cyclical risk. However, we kept the move modest, supported by loose credit conditions, higher index quality, and a manageable maturity wall.
Equities
Weight: Neutral
Our equity allocation is back to strategic weight, and we’ve removed our domestic equity bias while maintaining a preference for mid-caps.
U.S. Large Cap Blend
Weight: Neutral
We see heightened earnings risk for the S&P 500 due to tariffs, DOGE, and immigration policies. This has led us to lower return expectations, increasing the attractiveness of other asset categories.
Growth
Weight: Moderate Underweight
We remain underweight Growth due to high stock-specific risks among top constituents and elevated valuations.
Value
Weight: Neutral
We removed our slight Value overweight given more pro-cyclical exposure within the index and lack of valuation support.
U.S. Mid Cap
Weight: Overweight
We maintain a mid-cap overweight based on attractive valuations, lower international exposure, and less pro-cyclical risk versus small caps. Within mid caps, we favor higher quality companies with strong cash generation.
U.S. Small Cap
Weight: Slight Underweight
Given greater earnings risk, we reduced our small cap exposure to a slight underweight. Small business owner sentiment has turned down, particularly around capital spending and hiring.
International Developed
Weight: Slight Overweight
We increased our exposure to a slight overweight. In addition to lower U.S. return expectations, improving economic conditions in Europe, targeted fiscal stimulus, and attractive valuations support the shift. However, U.S. tariffs remain a significant risk.
International Emerging
Weight: Slight Underweight
We remain slightly underweight, given the potential drag from delayed Fed rate cuts and broader tariff threats on China and beyond.
Strategic: Strategic asset allocation is a baseline allocation between asset classes established with a longer term focus and congruent with an investor’s investment goals and objectives. The allocation is meant to optimize the asset mix through methodical diversification in an attempt to maximize return and lessen risk.
Tactical: Tactical asset allocation is differentiated from strategic asset allocation by having a much shorter time horizon and the goal of adding alpha beyond what would be allowed through static strategic weights. Markets tend to be more volatile over shorter time horizons, while longer time frames tend to smooth out that volatility. That enhanced volatility in the short term creates the opportunity for either return enhancement and/or risk reduction by adding to or reducing weights of different asset classes.